The 1973 Oil crisis where oil rose from $2 per barrel to $4 was a direct result of US / Israel aggression with the neighbouring Arab nations. Todays attempts on regime change in Iran but a similar US/Israel coalition has the World Financial Markets preparing for a white knuckle ride, the similarities are uncanny.
The legitimacy of starting conflicts never looks good without clear objectives being met swiftly . Putin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 was a swift win , something the World didn’t like , but could live with . The latter invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has got bogged down and cost unnecessary lives . Vietnam , Afghanistan all short term conflicts that went wrong .
The lead up to this crisis saw gold prices double within the year , well ahead of any amassing of aircraft carriers in Gulf . Global markets have known they are overvalued for a few years now , effectively ready for a crash but waiting on the reason.
Through 2025 many of President Trumps key supporters raised cash some before the tariff wars in April other in September ahead of the the Venezuela (Oil inspired ?) capture of their President , and this recent Iran Presidential assassination and ensuing bombing which also happens to be an oil rich nation. Sellers included Pam Bondi, John Paulson , Michel Dell and Safra Catz ex CEO of Oracle , often in multiple $billions.
Whilst Nato has only just stomached Presidents Trumps wake up call that other member of the Treaty need to pony up for peace , as instead of spending an agreed 4% of their GDP on defence , his partners had slipped to nearer 2 1/2% . Trumps call to arms to defend the straights of Hormuz wasn’t received with open arms.
Mark Carney talks of a new World order , as Canada might be joined at the hips to the US , but the recent trade spat has cut deep .
Calling Kier Starmer a prime minister who is ‘not Churchill’ for not lending Diego Garcia to land aircraft to refuel , showed how unplanned this event was. That the EU leaders are only now discussing how they wish to support or not , his actions further underlines that .
Whilst this continues , there are numerous unnecessary deaths to think of , but also , there is a chance that again the resultant inflation caused by the price of oil will be enough to cause base rates to rise and give the reasons these tired , expensive markets are looking for to send investors into low risk portfolio’s .
I’m hoping this theory is wrong and President Trump is too much of a capitalist to continue a fight that cannot be won , and have bought deeply out of the money oil puts in case this really is an incident and not a war , but every day bad gets worse .
Hi, this is a comment.
To get started with moderating, editing, and deleting comments, please visit the Comments screen in the dashboard.
Commenter avatars come from Gravatar.